Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.182178 2.302524 2.432294 2.583842 2.757602 2.952705 3.191495
2025-06-22 1.998954 2.144090 2.306611 2.504918 2.744579 3.030975 3.409613
2025-06-29 1.908491 2.072850 2.262381 2.502012 2.804869 3.187694 3.733274
2025-07-06 1.812446 1.984559 2.186895 2.448944 2.790712 3.240981 3.921738
2025-07-13 1.775256 1.961800 2.186011 2.484743 2.889583 3.451880 4.373448
2025-07-20 1.758236 1.960948 2.210121 2.552081 3.035169 3.747951 5.039896
2025-07-27 1.717040 1.926824 2.188633 2.555380 3.089170 3.913507 5.536796
2025-08-03 1.680811 1.896535 2.169454 2.559017 3.142159 4.083976 6.109841
2025-08-10 1.621537 1.833946 2.104251 2.493256 3.082871 4.054885 6.237680
2025-08-17 1.585380 1.799614 2.074759 2.475892 3.096198 4.153988 6.714433
2025-08-24 1.553381 1.769286 2.048964 2.461735 3.112478 4.260119 7.270144
2025-08-31 1.525614 1.743354 2.027765 2.452593 3.135379 4.381996 7.958233
2025-09-07 1.507943 1.731140 2.026144 2.474492 3.215845 4.643357 9.422791
2025-09-14 1.459946 1.676886 1.963993 2.401179 3.126390 4.531449 9.328142
2025-09-21 1.437702 1.656446 1.948250 2.397883 3.158760 4.691855 10.671626
2025-09-28 1.402285 1.617204 1.904623 2.349163 3.106247 4.651463 10.973708
2025-10-05 1.394388 1.614871 1.912963 2.381693 3.203147 4.982745 14.393101
2025-10-12 1.395381 1.624509 1.938561 2.442933 3.360856 5.523838 25.021022
2025-10-19 1.379396 1.610172 1.928701 2.445899 3.406279 5.779654 41.933247
2025-10-26 1.364350 1.596657 1.919458 2.449189 3.452571 6.057277 179.829717
2025-11-02 1.332625 1.559142 1.873688 2.389332 3.364099 5.881879 127.785568
2025-11-09 1.314210 1.539883 1.854496 2.373498 3.366354 6.010162 NaN
2025-11-16 1.297394 1.522474 1.837517 2.360580 3.373596 6.160053 NaN